The Retirement Bubble
some thoughts on our future from Bob Adams
Changes
There are changes underway in American society. I suspect the same can be said in Canada and much of Europe, although the changes may take on a different emphasis there. There are also going to be some small changes here at the blog and site, but more on that later.
It so happens that the latest statistics available to me are from the US, so I will focus on those. In the last post, I mentioned the Pulte survey indicating that 41% of Americans turning 50 years of age in 2010 do not expect to ever be financially able to retire. I suspect that is way too pessimistic, but it means they are reconsidering their future planning and not assuming the best results, a sensible approach these days. Of the 59% who still expect to retire, their average predicted age of retirement has risen four years from 63 to 67. Again, whatever the future may hold for them, this is a rational approach today.
Bits and pieces of other trends are showing up. As MarketWatch reports, “New-home buyers responded to the tough times in 2009 by opting for smaller houses, driving down the average size of a house built in the U.S. for the first time in 27 years. Data released Wednesday by the National Association of Home Builders found the average size of a new home that was completed in 2009 fell to 2,480 square feet from 2,520 square feet in 2008. The last time the average completed-home size fell by a statistically significant amount was 1982.”
Okay, that’s less than a 2% reduction, but it is a reduction and that is the news. I am not going to be the least surprised if 2010 brings an additional reduction and probably a larger one.
One of the potential obstacles to folks breaking from their failed future strategy to create a new one is the belief that everything will soon “return to normal”. I suspect there were many who felt that way in late 2007 when “sub-prime” entered the vocabulary and probably through 2008. But things did not get better in 2009 and attitudes are changing. Just a few days ago, the Gallup Poll asked a national sample how long they thought it take for the US economy to recover. Here are the results:
The mean (average) was four and a half years (some in the “5 or more” category expect it to take far more than five years) and that puts recovery into 2014.
The accuracy of these guesses is of no consequence. Obviously, they are not all right. The key is that people are beginning to approach the future differently than they were five years ago. They are starting to think longer-term and that is critical if they are to deal successfully and happily with the extended future that lies before them. We are starting to break the habits of our parents and grandparents and beginning to create our own habits, more fitting to this century and our place in it.
This is not unexpected, we all come to grips with reality eventually, but it is good to see it underway. Of course, politicians on both sides of the aisle are going to act as if they have the solutions to our problems that will turn things around in a year or two and guarantee happiness for everyone. Thankfully, many of us choose not to be so short-sighted in planning our futures.
Are these trends or shifts sufficient to get us through the Retirement Bubble? No. It is an important beginning, but only a beginning. Now that we are accepting that the world has changed for the worse and we cannot avoid it, we are vulnerable to slipping into a negative, frustrated, even bitter mindset. That is fertile ground for future social conflict that we really need to avoid. No, we need to create a positive approach, not just to rationalize our actions, but to give us the emotional “kick” we need to get into a different mindset. That is what the Life Sabbatical is about and that brings me to the blog and the site.
Most successful bloggers follow simple rules: write short posts and post frequently, at least daily. Now that Twitter has taken off, hourly or less seems to rule. Well, I am not going to waste my time on that. I don’t need the ego boost. I have written for Barron’s and the Christian Science Monitor, I have been interviewed on CNBC and Reuters television, quoted by the Associated Press, BBC, the New York Times, and a host of others, written for several publications both in print and on-line, the list is a long one. My ego is just fine, thank you, it does not need boosting. When I write, I want to have something of substance to say and it is not likely to be said in 150 words or less, and certainly not in Twitter’s style. But that is not a good way to draw blog traffic! So be it.
Likewise, I do not blog every day or even five days a week. I have stuck to a Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule. But this is also a “forced” approach that is not always appropriate.
So, from here on, I will blog once, twice, three or more times a week, but on no particular schedule. When I have something to say, I will say it. Those of you who subscribe either to the RSS feed or the email alerts will know when I have written.
My longer-term goal over the next couple months is to reorganize the site to reflect much more of what I have written here. Among other things, I want to put together a summary of my thoughts and recommendations in a form that can be downloaded. That will take the most time, but I want to be able to offer something more complete so visitors do not have to wade through the more than 100 posts already here to find what they want!
Yes, it is a good time for change!
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Thanks for the thoughts, Bob.
I prefer to receive 2 or three per week, at most. It takes me that long to absorb. I agree with you, you need to take the “blah”-(blah) out of blog!
Thanks!
Pat
Good one, Pat! Maybe we all should start calling them blahgs! That isn’t really fair, some of them are very good, but it does fit a heck of a lot of’em!
Bob
What’s next? How about writing a book? There are so many people that need this information.
Steve, as you might imagine, the thought has crossed my mind. I certainly have enough material here and otherwise available to me to do a book, but a traditional print book is not an easy thing to get published. It requires finding a literary agent who thinks it will be attractive to publishers, then they have to “shop” it to the various publishers. The whole process can take weeks or months or simply never happen. I was once asked to do this some years ago by a literary agent on the basis of my MiddleAge.org website, so I am familiar with the preparation of a book proposal and know that it is far more than preparing a manuscript. I pulled the plug on that when I felt I was not ready to do the job that needed to be done.
This time, I think the potential is clearly there and I will consider it. But if I do it, I am thinking more along the lines of e-publishing. There are high-quality services today that can take a manuscript and prepare it for download in a dozen versions from a standard PDF file to a Kindle book. This would mean no standard print book, the kind you find in bookstores, but it would mean that I would have complete control of the product, would have it on the market much faster, and could sell it for far less than a standard book. I would rather offer it for $9, for example, in a dozen downloadable forms (the reader chooses the one he or she wants) than have it sold for $35 as a standard book.
Without the advertising muscle of a mainstream publisher (I wouldn’t be on Oprah!), that would mean fewer sales and much less profit, but profit isn’t as important as getting it out to the public with a minimum of hassle and at an affordable price. I’ll see. Thanks for comment!
Bob